In the three years prior to the global recession, African countries had achieved an average annual growth of around 6%. Growth was highest in eastern Africa (8.2%), followed by southern Africa (6.7%), western Africa (5.5%), north Africa (5.4%), and central Africa (4.9%). Rising oil and non-oil commodity exports boosted growth during this period. The oil-exporting countries of Angola and Equatorial Guinea had achieved the highest growth. Among the non-oil exporters, growth was highest in Ethiopia. 

During this period, most African countries achieved average annual growth of around 5% or higher, and GDP per capita growth of at least 2.5%. There were, however, some exceptions, with much lower growth and with stagnating or declining GDP per capita. Zimbabwe and Eritrea were the only African countries during this period with declining GDP and with sharp falls in GDP per capita. In Zimbabwe, political and economic problems continued into 2009 with rampant inflation leading to a currency crisis. As a result, the Zimbabwean dollar has effectively ceased to be used as currency and has been replaced by the US dollar and the South African rand. (Neither Zimbabwe nor Eritrea is included in this report’s country analysis.) 

The global crisis of 2009 affected all regions and countries in Africa but to different degrees. It had its strongest effect on the southern African region, where growth was slashed (from the preceding three years’ average) by almost 8% to a negative growth of around 1%. Eastern African and north African economies proved to be the most resilient regions and – despite some deceleration of growth – continued to expand by 5.75% and 3.75% in 2009. Growth declined to 3% in western Africa and to around 2% in central Africa. In most African countries, GDP continued to grow in 2009, albeit at a lower rate. However, in 10 of this report’s 50 African countries (Seychelles, Madagascar, Botswana, South Africa, Namibia, Mauritania, Gabon, Niger, Chad and Angola), GDP declined in 2009. In half of all countries, per capita GDP stagnated or fell. In contrast, several countries, notably Ethiopia, Republic of Congo and Malawi, achieved relatively high growth in 2009 despite the global recession. 

Prospects are for a gradual recovery in all African regions, although the recession will leave its mark. The southern African region, which has been hardest hit in 2009, will recover more slowly than the other regions. Its average growth is expected to be almost 4% during 2010/11. In central Africa, growth will be slightly above 4% during the forecasting period; in north Africa and west Africa, average growth is expected to amount to around 5%. Eastern Africa, which has best weathered the global crisis, is likely again to achieve the highest average growth in 2010/11, with above 6%. Among individual countries, Ethiopia is likely again to lead the African growth league, followed by Angola, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ghana. In a few countries, however, growth is expected to remain too low to lift per capita GDP noticeably, and in Madagascar GDP per capita is likely to continue to decline as a result of the aftermath of the political crisis

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 africaeconomicoutlook.org
map: courtessy abbott-infotech.co.za